Copper Snapshot – July 2026

Resource2Capital

Know the data. Understand the story.

Copper Snapshot — July 2026

MONTH IN ONE LINE
Western copper benchmarks advanced, while sharply lower LME and SHFE inventories, a doubling of the Yangshan Premium and more negative spot TC/RCs signalled tighter physical conditions outside the United States.

1. Copper prices

Indicator	Jul-26	Jun-26	MoM
LME 3M EOM close (USD/t)	13,791	13,245	+4.1%
COMEX HG EOM settlement (USD/t)	14,254	13,652	+4.4%
SHFE CU EOM settlement (USD/t)*	10,266	10,630	-3.4%

* Official SHFE settlement converted from CNY/t using the month-end USD/CNY exchange rate. SHFE is a domestic gross price and includes Chinese VAT.

COPPER PRICES COMMENT
Global copper markets diverged further in July. COMEX and LME prices rose by 4.4% and 4.1%, respectively, while the USD-converted SHFE benchmark declined by 3.4%, partly reflecting renminbi depreciation. COMEX ended the month at a premium to the LME as refined copper continued to be attracted toward the United States.

2. Physical market

Indicator	Jul-26	Jun-26	MoM
LME stocks (kt)	249.9	329.2	-24.1%
COMEX stocks (kt)	421.2	385.4	+9.3%
SHFE stocks (kt)	25.6	69.6	-63.3%
Yangshan warrant premium (USD/t)	112	52	+115.4%
SMM spot TC/RC (USD/dmt)	-127.20	-120.03	-6.0%

PHYSICAL MARKET COMMENT
Visible stocks continued to migrate toward the United States. The simultaneous fall in LME and SHFE inventories, together with the surge in the Yangshan Premium, suggests that immediately available refined copper tightened materially in Asia. More negative spot TC/RCs indicate that concentrate availability also remained insufficient relative to smelter demand.

3. Macro environment

Indicator	Jul-26	Jun-26	Change
China NBS Manufacturing PMI	49.2	50.3	-1.1 pts
DXY	99.80	101.19	-1.4%
US 10Y Treasury yield	4.75%	4.41%	+34 bps
US CPI (YoY)*	3.5%	3.5%	unchanged
ICE Brent FM EOM settlement (USD/bbl)	90.12	72.92	+23.6%
LBMA Gold Price PM (USD/oz)	4,135.10	4,026.05	+2.7%

* Latest officially published value: June 2026 CPI. July CPI is scheduled for release on 12 August 2026.

MACRO COMMENT
China's PMI moved below the 50-point expansion threshold, signalling softer manufacturing momentum. The DXY fell below 100, providing support to USD-denominated metals, but US 10-year yields rose and financial conditions remained restrictive. Brent's sharp increase added a potential cost headwind for energy-intensive mining and smelting operations.

4. Key developments

US tariff investigation continued to reshape global copper trade flows.
Market participants continued to redirect refined copper into the United States ahead of potential trade-policy changes, contributing to elevated COMEX inventories and an unusually wide premium over other regional benchmarks.

Severe winter weather temporarily affected mining operations in Chile.
Heavy snowfall, rainfall and flooding caused temporary interruptions at several Chilean copper operations. The events were limited in duration but highlighted the exposure of mine supply to increasingly frequent weather disruptions.

Codelco lowered expectations for future production growth.
Chile's state-owned producer indicated that output is likely to remain broadly flat in the coming years as project delays, ageing assets and declining ore grades complicate efforts to restore growth.

The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate.
The FOMC left the target range unchanged and continued to emphasise inflation risks. Markets remained focused on the implications for the US dollar, financing conditions and industrial-metal demand.

5. Interpretation

July's indicators point to persistent regional imbalances rather than broad physical oversupply. Price strength was concentrated on Western exchanges, while the inventory data showed refined copper accumulating in the United States and becoming scarcer in LME and SHFE warehouses.

The sharp rise in the Yangshan Premium is consistent with stronger demand for immediately available imported copper in China. At the same time, spot TC/RCs moved further into negative territory, indicating that concentrate supply remained tight relative to global smelting capacity. These two indicators show tightness at both the refined-metal and upstream concentrate stages of the value chain.

Macro signals were less supportive. China's manufacturing PMI returned to contraction territory and US yields increased, although the weaker dollar cushioned the impact on dollar-denominated metals. Taken together, the July data suggest that structural supply constraints and regional dislocations continued to underpin copper despite softer Chinese activity and restrictive financial conditions.

6. 1-minute copper concept

LME 3-Month Copper Price

The LME 3-Month Copper Price is the world's most widely used benchmark for pricing physical copper transactions. Unlike the LME Cash Price, it represents copper for delivery three months forward, matching the standard settlement period used in much of the physical market. Producers, traders and consumers commonly reference this benchmark when negotiating contracts, managing inventory exposure and hedging price risk. Its liquidity and broad international use make it the principal global reference point for copper pricing.

7. Copper Challenge

LAST MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Question: If LME inventories fall by 50%, does that automatically mean the global copper market is in deficit?

Answer: No. LME inventories represent only one segment of global copper stocks. Material held by producers, consumers, bonded warehouses and in transit is not included. A sharp LME draw is an important signal of local availability, but it cannot by itself establish the global refined-market balance.

THIS MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Why can copper prices differ significantly between the LME, COMEX and SHFE, even though they all trade the same metal?
The answer will be published in the August Copper Snapshot.

8. Asset spotlight

Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex | Democratic Republic of the Congo

Operator	Kamoa Copper S.A.; managed by Ivanhoe Mines
Ownership	Ivanhoe Mines 39.6%; Zijin Mining 39.6%; Government of the DRC 20.0%; Crystal River Global 0.8%
Asset type	Large-scale underground copper complex with three concentrators and an on-site direct-to-blister smelter
Location	Central African Copperbelt, approximately 25 km west of Kolwezi, DRC
2025 production	388,838 tonnes of copper produced
2026 guidance	290,000–330,000 tonnes of copper anode or blister
2026 C1 cost guidance	USD 2.60–3.00/lb of payable copper
Medium-term objective	Return annualised production to more than 500,000 tonnes from 2028
Strategic strengths	Large, high-grade resource base; integrated processing and smelting; important source of future African copper supply
Principal risks	Underground geotechnical and hydrological conditions, dewatering and ramp-up execution, grid reliability, logistics, and DRC political/regulatory exposure

WHY IT MATTERS
Kamoa-Kakula demonstrates both the opportunity and execution risk embedded in the next generation of copper supply. Its scale and grade make it strategically important, but revised guidance following underground operational challenges shows how difficult it is for even world-class assets to deliver smooth production growth.

Asset data source: Ivanhoe Mines company disclosures; figures shown on a 100% project basis where applicable.

9. Structural balance | ICSG framework

Indicator	2026	2025
Global refined production (kt)	28,760	28,656
Global refined consumption (kt)	28,664	28,201
Global refined balance (kt)	+96	+455

STRUCTURAL CONTEXT
The annual ICSG framework points to a modest refined surplus in 2026. The monthly indicators show why this does not necessarily translate into easy physical availability everywhere: inventories can be concentrated in one region, while import premiums and exchange stocks signal tightness elsewhere.

10. What to watch | August 2026

7 Aug. — US Employment Situation: A material surprise could alter interest-rate expectations, the dollar and risk sentiment across commodities.

12 Aug. — US CPI: The July inflation release will be a key input for the next Federal Reserve decision and US yield expectations.

18 Aug. — US Industrial Production: Provides a timely signal on US manufacturing and energy-intensive industrial demand.

19 Aug. — FOMC Minutes: Will clarify the discussion behind the July decision and the Committee's balance of inflation and growth risks.

31 Aug. — China NBS Manufacturing PMI: The first official indication of whether July's manufacturing contraction extended into August.

Ongoing — Copper trade flows and exchange stocks: Watch whether refined metal continues to accumulate in COMEX warehouses or begins to move back toward Europe and Asia.

Ongoing — Chile and Peru mine supply: Operational updates, weather impacts and labour developments remain relevant to near-term concentrate availability.

11. What's new in this edition

• Snapshot Summary introduced as a concise month-end dashboard.
• Official end-of-month exchange prices adopted for LME, COMEX and SHFE.
• SHFE converted into USD/t for presentation; the price remains gross and includes Chinese VAT.
• Yangshan Warrant Premium adopted as the standard indicator of immediate Chinese import demand.
• Spot TC/RC updated to the official SMM month-end spot observation.
• Key Developments separated from the data-based Interpretation section.
• 1-Minute Copper Concept and the two-part Copper Challenge introduced.
• Copper Calendar renamed What to Watch and focused on market-relevant events and risks.
• Comparative June figures restated where necessary under the revised methodology.

Data notes & sources

Prices and stocks: London Metal Exchange (LME), CME Group (COMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Physical indicators: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Macro indicators: National Bureau of Statistics of China, ICE, U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and LBMA. Structural balance: International Copper Study Group (ICSG).

Rounding: exchange prices are reported to the nearest USD/t, inventories to one decimal kt, and percentage changes to one decimal place. US CPI reflects the latest officially published year-on-year rate available at publication. Forecasts are excluded from the data tables.

This publication is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

See you next month. Stay informed. Stay ahead.