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Resource2Capital
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Gold Snapshot — September 2026
MONTH IN ONE LINE
Gold corrected sharply in September as rising US yields and a stronger dollar reversed part of August's rally, while improving physical-market signals in China and India provided a counterweight. 1. Gold prices
* September month-end values use 30 September 2026. The Gold/Silver Ratio is calculated from the supplied LBMA benchmark values.
GOLD PRICES COMMENT
Gold fell 8.75% in US-dollar terms, from USD 4,562.75/oz to USD 4,163.40/oz, and 5.46% in euro terms to EUR 3,722.85/oz. Silver declined more sharply, down 12.65% to USD 61.37/oz, lifting the Gold/Silver Ratio from 64.93x to 67.84x. 2. Market indicators
* September ETF holdings are an estimate based on the supplied WGC weekly data, pending the final monthly figure. ATH = all-time high; 4,189.0 t was the highest officially reported global gold ETF holding on record. Central-bank reserves are latest reported aggregates with an approximately two-month lag.
MARKET INDICATORS COMMENT
COMEX Managed Money net length fell by 20,819 contracts to +115,892. Physical-market signals moved the other way: China shifted from a USD 6.21/oz discount to a USD 3.15/oz premium, while India's discount narrowed materially from USD 26.00/oz to USD 11.00/oz. Estimated ETF holdings of ≈4,210.0 t remained close to August's record level, and reported central-bank reserves rose a further 23.0 t. 3. Macro & monetary environment
* CPI uses the latest officially published BLS reading available at publication. US 10Y nominal and real yields use U.S. Department of the Treasury series.
MACRO COMMENT
The macro backdrop turned materially less supportive. DXY strengthened 2.03% from 99.43 to 101.45, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 54 bp to 5.29%, and the 10-year real yield increased 49 bp to 2.93%. The latest available CPI reading was unchanged at 3.4% YoY, so the rise in nominal yields translated almost fully into higher real yields. 4. Key developmentsUS yields became the dominant macro headwind. The Federal Reserve tightened policy in September. Financial positioning weakened while physical signals improved. ETF holdings remained resilient. 5. InterpretationSeptember reversed part of August's investment-led rally. A stronger dollar and sharply higher US yields weighed on gold, while improving Asian physical-market signals provided a counterweight. The 8.75% decline in US-dollar terms came alongside a 54 bp rise in the nominal 10-year yield and a 49 bp rise in the 10-year real yield, so the correction is consistent with a rates-driven repricing rather than a deterioration in the underlying demand picture. Bottom line. The key divergence was between weaker leveraged positioning and firmer physical-market conditions. Managed Money net length fell by 20,819 contracts, yet ETF holdings held close to their record and both Chinese and Indian local prices improved. October will test whether seasonal Asian demand can offset continued pressure from elevated real yields. 6. 1-minute gold conceptGold premiums and discounts Local gold prices can trade above or below the international benchmark because of import rules, taxes, currencies, inventories and local supply-demand conditions. A premium generally signals tighter local conditions, meaning buyers are willing to pay more than the international reference to secure metal. A discount points to softer demand or ample local supply. Tracking these spreads is therefore a practical way to read physical-market strength in the two largest consumer markets, China and India. 7. Gold Challenge
LAST MONTH'S QUESTION
If the LBMA Gold Price is the global benchmark, why can gold trade at a different price on COMEX or the Shanghai Gold Exchange?
LAST MONTH'S ANSWER
The LBMA Gold Price is a benchmark auction price, while COMEX and the Shanghai Gold Exchange are separate trading venues with different contract structures, trading hours, currencies and delivery conventions. Arbitrage links the markets, but these differences can create temporary price gaps.
THIS MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Question: If higher real yields normally increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, why can gold sometimes rise even when real yields are elevated or increasing? The answer will be published in the October Gold Snapshot. 8. Asset spotlightShanghai Gold Exchange | China
FROM LBMA USD/OZ TO SHANGHAI CNY/G
The Shanghai Gold Benchmark is quoted in renminbi per gram, while the LBMA Gold Price is commonly quoted in US dollars per troy ounce. A currency-and-unit-equivalent LBMA reference is: LBMA-equivalent CNY/g = LBMA Gold Price (USD/oz) × USD/CNY / 31.1035. The Shanghai benchmark is formed independently through the SGE auction; the difference versus the converted international reference reflects the local premium or discount.
LONDON VS SHANGHAI — WHICH MARKET IS BIGGER?
It depends on what is being measured. London is the dominant global gold market by trading value and liquidity, while Shanghai is the leading exchange-based physical gold market and a key hub for physical delivery and withdrawals. London is primarily an OTC wholesale market; Shanghai has a stronger physical-market orientation, making its delivery and withdrawal activity a useful indicator of Chinese wholesale physical demand.
WHY IT MATTERS
The Shanghai Gold Exchange is where Chinese wholesale physical demand becomes visible. Because its benchmark is formed locally rather than converted from London, the spread between the two is a direct read on whether the world's largest consumer market is tightening or softening — which is precisely the counterweight that limited September's correction. Next month: COMEX — the futures market, hedging, leverage and why Managed Money positioning matters. 9. Gold supply & demand | WGC framework
STRUCTURAL CONTEXT
The latest available WGC Q2 framework remains unchanged, with 1,268.9 t of total supply and matching total demand. Q3 Gold Demand Trends had not yet been incorporated at publication, so no monthly inference is made from the quarterly OTC & Other category. 10. What to watch | October 20267 Oct. — PBoC reserves: The September reserve update will show whether official-sector accumulation continued through the correction. 14 Oct. — US CPI: September inflation and its implications for real yields. 27–28 Oct. — FOMC: Whether the Fed tightens again or pauses after September's move. Ongoing — US real yields: Whether the 10-year real yield remains near 3% or retreats. Ongoing — China and India: Whether seasonal demand sustains the improved physical-market signals. Ongoing — ETF holdings and COMEX positioning: Whether investment demand stabilises after September's correction. Data notes & sourcesCross-Snapshot Consistency Rule: where an indicator overlaps with the Copper Snapshot, the Gold Snapshot uses the identical source, definition, month-end convention and value. Restatements versus the August Snapshot: August global gold ETF holdings were published as an approximate range of ≈4,250–4,300 t pending the final WGC figure; the final officially reported figure was 4,189.0 t, which is the prior-month value used here. August reported central-bank gold reserves were published as ≈36,400 t and are stated here as the precise reported aggregate of 36,437.0 t. Prices: LBMA / ICE Benchmark Administration. LBMA Silver / Gold-Silver Ratio: Resource2Capital calculation based on LBMA benchmark prices. ETFs and Asian premiums: World Gold Council. COMEX positioning: U.S. CFTC Commitments of Traders. Central banks: WGC / IMF / official central-bank sources. DXY: ICE Futures U.S. US 10Y nominal and real yields: U.S. Department of the Treasury. CPI: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Supply & demand: World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends, latest available Q2 2026 framework. This publication is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. See you next month. Stay informed. Stay ahead.
Resource2Capital
Know the data. Understand the story.
Copper Snapshot — September 2026
MONTH IN ONE LINE
Copper prices remained resilient in September despite a stronger dollar and higher US yields, as tighter Chinese physical conditions and increasingly negative treatment charges contrasted with rising LME and COMEX inventories. 1. Copper prices
* COMEX converted from USD/lb to USD/t. ** SHFE converted to USD/t and presented net of Chinese VAT.
COPPER PRICES COMMENT
Copper prices were mixed in September. LME 3-Month copper edged 0.6% higher and COMEX gained 0.4%, while SHFE declined 2.5% on a net-of-VAT basis. LME and COMEX remained resilient despite a stronger US dollar and higher US Treasury yields. 2. Physical market
* The treatment-charge change is calculated against the absolute August base; the negative value means treatment charges became more negative.
PHYSICAL MARKET COMMENT
Physical conditions diverged sharply across regions. LME and COMEX inventories increased, while SHFE stocks fell to just 10.0 kt and the Yangshan premium rose 60.7% to USD 112.50/t, consistent with significantly tighter physical availability in China. The decline in SHFE futures does not contradict this tightening: futures pricing and physical import premiums measure different parts of the market, and positioning ahead of China's October holiday closure could diverge from immediate physical conditions. Upstream, spot treatment charges deteriorated further to USD -224.53/dmt, signalling persistent concentrate scarcity. 3. Macro environment
* September 2026 US CPI was not available at month-end and is scheduled for release on 14 October 2026.
MACRO COMMENT
The macro backdrop became less supportive for copper. The DXY strengthened 2.0% and the US 10-year yield rose 54 basis points, while gold declined 8.8%. China provided a more constructive signal, with manufacturing PMI returning above the 50-point expansion threshold. 4. Key developmentsChina's physical copper market tightened. Concentrate scarcity intensified. China's manufacturing PMI returned to expansion. Chile's expected production recovery faced renewed risks. Cobre Panama emerged as a potential supply offset. 5. InterpretationSeptember's data point to an increasingly fragmented copper market. LME copper ended the month 0.6% higher and COMEX gained 0.4%, despite a 2.0% rise in the DXY and a 54-basis-point increase in the US 10-year Treasury yield. SHFE, by contrast, declined 2.5% on a net-of-VAT basis. The clearest tightening occurred in China. SHFE stocks fell from 72.4 kt to 10.0 kt and the Yangshan premium rose from USD 70/t to USD 112.50/t, while manufacturing PMI returned above 50. The simultaneous decline in SHFE futures and rise in the Yangshan premium further illustrates the distinction between futures-market pricing and immediate physical availability. Upstream, spot treatment charges deteriorated to USD -224.53/dmt, signalling persistent concentrate scarcity. Yet refined-copper availability remained highly regional: LME inventories rose 6.5% and COMEX stocks increased 4.2% while Chinese stocks contracted sharply. Chile added downside risk to mine supply, while Cobre Panama re-emerged as a potential longer-term offset. September therefore highlights a market in which the location of refined metal matters increasingly, while concentrate scarcity remains the central constraint upstream. 6. 1-minute copper conceptRegional Inventory Dislocation Copper inventories do not form one freely accessible global pool. Metal can accumulate in one region while another experiences tight availability because logistics, trade barriers, financing costs and regional price differences limit or delay its movement. Physical premiums can help identify these imbalances: rising premiums indicate that buyers are willing to pay more to secure metal in a particular market. Where the copper is located can therefore matter almost as much as how much copper exists. 7. Copper Challenge
LAST MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Question: If global refined copper production exceeds consumption, can the physical copper market still experience shortages? Answer: Yes. A global surplus describes the aggregate balance, not where metal is located or how easily consumers can access it. September illustrates the distinction: LME and COMEX stocks increased while SHFE inventories fell sharply and the Yangshan premium rose. A global surplus does not guarantee that copper is available in the right place, in the right form, at the right time.
THIS MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Question: Can copper mine production grow while the concentrate market becomes tighter? The answer will be published in the October Copper Snapshot. 8. Asset spotlightOyu Tolgoi | Mongolia
WHY IT MATTERS
Oyu Tolgoi represents an important source of incremental global copper supply already moving through the ramp-up phase. Its underground orebody is materially higher grade than the open pit and supports a long-term production profile of around 500 kt of recoverable copper per year on average from 2028–2036. The asset shows that meaningful new mine supply is coming, but also that bringing complex underground resources to full production takes years. Asset data source: Rio Tinto company disclosures. Production target stated on a 100% project basis as recoverable copper; reserve grade refers to the underground Hugo Dummett North reserve basis. 9. Structural balance | ICSG framework
STRUCTURAL CONTEXT
The annual ICSG framework points to a modest refined surplus in 2026. September illustrates why this does not necessarily mean easy physical availability everywhere: inventories can accumulate in one region while physical conditions tighten elsewhere. 10. What to watch | October 202613 Oct. — ICSG Meetings: Watch for an updated assessment of global mine production, refined production, consumption and the 2026–27 copper balance. 14 Oct. — US CPI: September inflation will be an important input for US rate expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar. 19 Oct. — China Economic Data: Fresh activity data will provide further evidence on Chinese industrial and domestic demand. 27–28 Oct. — FOMC Meeting: The policy decision and guidance will be closely watched for implications for yields, the dollar and commodity markets. 31 Oct. — China NBS Manufacturing PMI: Watch whether September's return to expansion can be sustained. Ongoing — Copper supply chain: Chinese physical premiums and inventories, spot treatment charges, smelter maintenance, Chilean mine developments and any concrete steps toward a Cobre Panama restart remain key supply indicators. Data notes & sourcesPrices and stocks: London Metal Exchange (LME), CME Group (COMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Physical indicators: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Macro indicators: National Bureau of Statistics of China, ICE, U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and LBMA. Structural balance: International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Mine supply and company data: Cochilco and company disclosures. Rounding: exchange prices are reported to the nearest USD/t, inventories to one decimal kt, and percentage changes to one decimal place. US CPI reflects the latest officially published year-on-year rate available at publication. Forecasts are excluded from the data tables. This publication is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. See you next month. Stay informed. Stay ahead.
Resource2Capital
Know the data. Understand the story.
Gold Snapshot — August 2026
MONTH IN ONE LINE
Gold surged 13.3% in August even as US 10-year Treasury yields ended the month unchanged at an elevated 4.75%. The move points to strengthening investment and safe-haven demand, while persistent pressure in the US bond market kept fiscal sustainability, debt supply and real yields at the centre of the gold story. 1. Gold prices
* Month-end convention: final August LBMA PM observation on Friday, 28 August 2026 because 31 August was a UK holiday. EUR value supplied for the same date.
GOLD PRICES COMMENT
Gold rose from USD 4,026.60/oz at end-July to USD 4,562.75/oz at the final August LBMA PM fixing, a 13.3% monthly gain. In euro terms, gold increased 12.84% to EUR 3,938.02/oz. The strength is notable because it occurred without a corresponding month-end decline in the nominal US 10-year Treasury yield. 2. Market indicators
* COMEX Managed Money uses the supplied weekly CFTC cut-offs. China and India use the supplied WGC 5-day rolling premium/discount readings. August ETF holdings remain an approximate WGC range pending the exact final holdings figure.
MARKET INDICATORS COMMENT
Financial participation strengthened in August. COMEX Managed Money net length increased by 13,185 contracts, while the supplied WGC ETF data point to holdings of roughly 4,250–4,300 t after 4,068 t in July. Physical-market signals moved in the opposite direction: China shifted from a USD 4.12/oz premium to a USD 6.21/oz discount, while India's discount widened to USD 26.00/oz. Silver outperformed gold, pushing the Gold/Silver Ratio down from 69.75x to 64.93x, a 6.91% decline. 3. Macro & monetary environment
* CPI uses the latest officially published BLS reading available at publication. US 10Y nominal and real yields use U.S. Department of the Treasury series.
MACRO COMMENT
DXY weakened modestly from 99.80 to 99.43. The nominal US 10-year Treasury yield ended unchanged at 4.75%, while the Treasury 10-year real yield eased only 3 bp to 2.44%. The latest available CPI reading slowed from 3.5% YoY for June to 3.4% for July. Gold's 13.3% rally therefore cannot be explained by a large fall in nominal or real yields alone. 4. Key developmentsTreasury support produced only temporary intra-month relief in long-duration bonds. Gold ETF inflows accelerated sharply in August. Barrick and Newmont agreed to expand Nevada Gold Mines. Official-sector accumulation remained supportive. 5. InterpretationAugust strengthened the case that gold is being supported by more than one channel. The LBMA Gold Price PM rose 13.3%, while the dollar weakened only modestly and the nominal US 10-year Treasury yield finished unchanged at 4.75%. The most important signal is therefore the coexistence of a strong gold rally with elevated long-term US yields. Treasury intervention briefly reduced yields intra-month, but the subsequent rebound suggests that underlying concerns over inflation, debt supply and fiscal sustainability were not resolved. The 10-year real yield declined only marginally, from 2.47% to 2.44%, reinforcing the view that falling real rates alone cannot explain the magnitude of gold's August move. Bottom line. August was bullish for gold despite a still-restrictive rates backdrop. Strong ETF inflows and higher COMEX net length point to an investment-led rally, while widening physical discounts in China and India show that the move was not primarily driven by stronger Asian physical demand. Fiscal risk, reserve diversification and confidence in US government finances therefore remain important additional drivers to monitor. 6. 1-minute gold conceptLBMA Gold Price The LBMA Gold Price is the globally recognised benchmark for the wholesale gold market. It is set twice each London business day through electronic auctions: AM (ante meridiem) at 10:30 and PM (post meridiem) at 15:00 London time. Quoted in USD per troy ounce, the benchmark is widely used to value gold, settle transactions and manage price exposure. Although gold trades continuously around the world, the LBMA Gold Price provides a standard reference for the global market. This Snapshot uses the PM price as its month-end gold benchmark. 7. Gold Challenge
THIS MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Question: If the LBMA Gold Price is the global benchmark, why can gold trade at a different price on COMEX or the Shanghai Gold Exchange? The answer will be published in the September Gold Snapshot. 8. Asset spotlightNevada Gold Mines | United States
* Derived from Newmont's 935 koz attributable 2026 guidance for its 38.5% interest. ** Based on Newmont's 2026 guidance for its Nevada Gold Mines interest.
WHY IT MATTERS
Nevada Gold Mines is one of the world's largest integrated gold-producing complexes and illustrates how scale, infrastructure and reserve replacement support long-term mine supply. Its network of mines and processing facilities creates flexibility, but sustaining output still requires continuous investment as grades change, costs rise and ore bodies are depleted. 9. Gold supply & demand | WGC framework
STRUCTURAL CONTEXT
The latest available WGC Q2 framework shows 1,268.9 t of total supply, including 965.6 t of mine production and 326.1 t of recycling. Identified demand excluding OTC & Other was 941.8 t; the 327.1 t OTC & Other category brings total demand to 1,268.9 t. Because these figures are quarterly, the same Q2 framework applies to both the July and August Snapshots. 10. What to watch | September 202611 Sep. — US CPI: August inflation will be the final major CPI reading before the September FOMC decision and is critical for nominal and real yields. 15–16 Sep. — FOMC: The policy decision and communication will determine whether the late-August repricing toward tighter policy is validated or reversed. Ongoing — US bond market: Watch whether the 10-year yield moves toward 5% and whether expanded Treasury buybacks can materially change long-end pressure. Ongoing — Gold ETF holdings and COMEX positioning: The final August WGC ETF data and futures positioning will show whether the price rally was confirmed by broader investor participation. Ongoing — China, India and central banks: Asian premiums will test the strength of physical demand at higher prices, while the latest reported official-sector data will indicate whether central-bank accumulation remains supportive. Data notes & sourcesCross-Snapshot Consistency Rule: where an indicator overlaps with the Copper Snapshot, the Gold Snapshot uses the identical source, definition, month-end convention and value. Prices: LBMA / ICE Benchmark Administration. LBMA Silver / Gold-Silver Ratio: Resource2Capital calculation based on LBMA benchmark prices. ETFs and Asian premiums: World Gold Council. COMEX positioning: U.S. CFTC Commitments of Traders. Central banks: WGC / IMF / official central-bank sources. DXY: ICE Futures U.S. US 10Y nominal and real yields: U.S. Department of the Treasury. CPI: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Supply & demand: World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends, latest available Q2 2026 framework. This publication is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. See you next month. Stay informed. Stay ahead.
Resource2Capital
Know the data. Understand the story.
Copper Snapshot — August 2026
MONTH IN ONE LINE
Copper prices strengthened across all major exchanges in August, while regional inventory imbalances, softer Chinese import demand and deeply negative treatment charges continued to signal a fragmented and supply-constrained physical market. 1. Copper prices
* COMEX converted from USD/lb to USD/t. ** SHFE converted to USD/t and presented net of 13% Chinese VAT.
COPPER PRICES COMMENT
Copper prices advanced across all three major exchanges in August. LME 3-Month copper rose 4.1% to USD 14,370/t, while COMEX gained 2.4% to USD 14,536/t and SHFE increased 2.3% to USD 14,139/t on a net-of-VAT basis. The broad-based rise contrasts with July's more uneven regional pricing and points to firmer copper sentiment across global markets. 2. Physical market
PHYSICAL MARKET COMMENT
Physical indicators remained regionally mixed. LME stocks declined another 6.2% to 234.3 kt, while COMEX inventories remained near record levels at 675.2 kt and SHFE stocks edged 4.0% higher to 72.4 kt. The Yangshan B/L premium fell sharply from USD 107/t to USD 70/t, signalling softer near-term import demand in China. Spot TC improved from USD -159.40/dmt to USD -144.50/dmt but remained deeply negative, indicating that concentrate availability was still tight relative to smelter demand. 3. Macro environment
* August 2026 CPI is scheduled for release on 11 September 2026.
MACRO COMMENT
The macro backdrop was mixed but broadly supportive for metals. China's manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 but remained just below the 50-point expansion threshold. The DXY eased further to 99.43, while US 10-year Treasury yields were unchanged at 4.75%. Brent remained broadly stable near USD 90/bbl, whereas gold rose sharply to USD 4,562.75/oz. August US CPI had not yet been published at month-end and is scheduled for release on 11 September. 4. Key developmentsUS copper trade policy continued to reshape global trade flows. China's manufacturing activity improved but remained below the expansion threshold. Copper concentrate availability remained tight despite some improvement in spot TCs. Codelco's operational challenges highlighted continuing risks to mine supply. 5. InterpretationAugust's data point to a copper market characterised by stronger prices but persistent regional imbalances. All three major exchange benchmarks advanced, with LME copper reaching USD 14,370/t. At the same time, LME inventories declined further while COMEX stocks remained close to record levels, suggesting that the location of refined metal continued to matter as much as the aggregate quantity visible in exchange warehouses. Chinese physical indicators were less supportive. SHFE inventories increased modestly and the Yangshan B/L premium fell from USD 107/t to USD 70/t, suggesting softer immediate demand for imported refined copper. This contrasts with the continued decline in LME stocks and reinforces the view that physical availability remained uneven across regions rather than uniformly tight. Upstream conditions remained more constrained. Spot TC recovered from the exceptionally weak July level but stayed deeply negative, indicating that concentrate supply remained insufficient relative to smelter demand. Combined with firmer copper prices, a softer dollar and only modest improvement in China's manufacturing PMI, the August data suggest that structural supply constraints continued to support copper even as near-term Chinese physical demand softened. 6. 1-minute copper conceptTreatment Charges (TCs) Treatment charges are the fees that copper smelters receive from miners for converting copper concentrate into refined metal. They serve as a crucial health check for the copper supply chain:
This is why TCs provide a vital early warning system for upstream tightness, often flashing red long before refined copper inventories in global warehouses begin to drop. 7. Copper Challenge
LAST MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Question: Why can copper prices differ significantly between the LME, COMEX and SHFE, even though they all trade the same metal? Answer: Because the three exchanges represent distinct regional dynamics, contract structures, and pricing conventions:
THIS MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Question: If global refined copper production exceeds consumption, can the physical copper market still experience shortages? The answer will be published in the September Copper Snapshot. 8. Asset spotlightEl Teniente | Chile
WHY IT MATTERS
El Teniente captures one of the central challenges facing future copper supply: a world-class resource does not automatically translate into easy production growth. Its enormous reserve base and established infrastructure provide the foundation for decades of future output, but accessing deeper sections of the deposit requires increasingly complex underground development and careful management of geotechnical and seismic risks. That challenge became particularly visible in August, when Codelco temporarily suspended development and construction at Andes Norte after technical analysis identified an emerging deep-seismicity risk. At the end of the month, Andes Norte remained suspended, while Diamante had reached 59% completion and Andesita was limited to critical maintenance activities. Asset data source: Codelco company disclosures; production figures shown on a divisional basis. 9. Structural balance | ICSG framework
STRUCTURAL CONTEXT
The annual ICSG framework points to a modest refined surplus in 2026. The monthly indicators show why this does not necessarily translate into easy physical availability everywhere: inventories can be concentrated in one region, while import premiums and exchange stocks signal tightness elsewhere. 10. What to watch | September 20264 Sep. — US Employment Situation: The August labour-market report will provide an important signal on US economic momentum and could shift expectations for interest rates, the dollar and broader commodity risk sentiment. 11 Sep. — US CPI: The August inflation release will be a key input for the Federal Reserve's September policy decision. A material surprise could affect Treasury yields, the US dollar and dollar-denominated metals. 15–16 Sep. — FOMC Meeting: The Federal Reserve's September meeting will include updated economic projections. Markets will focus on the policy decision, the expected path for interest rates and the Fed's assessment of inflation and labour-market conditions. 15 Sep. — China Economic Data (NBS): The release of China's industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment for August will provide critical insight into domestic metals demand. Markets will closely watch whether industrial activity matches the slight improvement seen in the August Manufacturing PMI. This publication is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. See you next month. Stay informed. Stay ahead.
Resource2Capital
Know the data. Understand the story.
Copper Snapshot — July 2026
MONTH IN ONE LINE
Western copper benchmarks advanced, while sharply lower LME and SHFE inventories, a doubling of the Yangshan Premium and more negative spot TC/RCs signalled tighter physical conditions outside the United States. 1. Copper prices
* Official SHFE settlement converted from CNY/t using the month-end USD/CNY exchange rate. SHFE is a domestic gross price and includes Chinese VAT.
COPPER PRICES COMMENT
Global copper markets diverged further in July. COMEX and LME prices rose by 4.4% and 4.1%, respectively, while the USD-converted SHFE benchmark declined by 3.4%, partly reflecting renminbi depreciation. COMEX ended the month at a premium to the LME as refined copper continued to be attracted toward the United States. 2. Physical market
PHYSICAL MARKET COMMENT
Visible stocks continued to migrate toward the United States. The simultaneous fall in LME and SHFE inventories, together with the surge in the Yangshan Premium, suggests that immediately available refined copper tightened materially in Asia. More negative spot TC/RCs indicate that concentrate availability also remained insufficient relative to smelter demand. 3. Macro environment
* Latest officially published value: June 2026 CPI. July CPI is scheduled for release on 12 August 2026.
MACRO COMMENT
China's PMI moved below the 50-point expansion threshold, signalling softer manufacturing momentum. The DXY fell below 100, providing support to USD-denominated metals, but US 10-year yields rose and financial conditions remained restrictive. Brent's sharp increase added a potential cost headwind for energy-intensive mining and smelting operations. 4. Key developmentsUS tariff investigation continued to reshape global copper trade flows. Severe winter weather temporarily affected mining operations in Chile. Codelco lowered expectations for future production growth. The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate. 5. InterpretationJuly's indicators point to persistent regional imbalances rather than broad physical oversupply. Price strength was concentrated on Western exchanges, while the inventory data showed refined copper accumulating in the United States and becoming scarcer in LME and SHFE warehouses. The sharp rise in the Yangshan Premium is consistent with stronger demand for immediately available imported copper in China. At the same time, spot TC/RCs moved further into negative territory, indicating that concentrate supply remained tight relative to global smelting capacity. These two indicators show tightness at both the refined-metal and upstream concentrate stages of the value chain. Macro signals were less supportive. China's manufacturing PMI returned to contraction territory and US yields increased, although the weaker dollar cushioned the impact on dollar-denominated metals. Taken together, the July data suggest that structural supply constraints and regional dislocations continued to underpin copper despite softer Chinese activity and restrictive financial conditions. 6. 1-minute copper conceptLME 3-Month Copper Price The LME 3-Month Copper Price is the world's most widely used benchmark for pricing physical copper transactions. Unlike the LME Cash Price, it represents copper for delivery three months forward, matching the standard settlement period used in much of the physical market. Producers, traders and consumers commonly reference this benchmark when negotiating contracts, managing inventory exposure and hedging price risk. Its liquidity and broad international use make it the principal global reference point for copper pricing. 7. Copper Challenge
LAST MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Question: If LME inventories fall by 50%, does that automatically mean the global copper market is in deficit? Answer: No. LME inventories represent only one segment of global copper stocks. Material held by producers, consumers, bonded warehouses and in transit is not included. A sharp LME draw is an important signal of local availability, but it cannot by itself establish the global refined-market balance.
THIS MONTH'S CHALLENGE
Why can copper prices differ significantly between the LME, COMEX and SHFE, even though they all trade the same metal? The answer will be published in the August Copper Snapshot. 8. Asset spotlightKamoa-Kakula Copper Complex | Democratic Republic of the Congo
WHY IT MATTERS
Kamoa-Kakula demonstrates both the opportunity and execution risk embedded in the next generation of copper supply. Its scale and grade make it strategically important, but revised guidance following underground operational challenges shows how difficult it is for even world-class assets to deliver smooth production growth. Asset data source: Ivanhoe Mines company disclosures; figures shown on a 100% project basis where applicable. 9. Structural balance | ICSG framework
STRUCTURAL CONTEXT
The annual ICSG framework points to a modest refined surplus in 2026. The monthly indicators show why this does not necessarily translate into easy physical availability everywhere: inventories can be concentrated in one region, while import premiums and exchange stocks signal tightness elsewhere. 10. What to watch | August 20267 Aug. — US Employment Situation: A material surprise could alter interest-rate expectations, the dollar and risk sentiment across commodities. 12 Aug. — US CPI: The July inflation release will be a key input for the next Federal Reserve decision and US yield expectations. 18 Aug. — US Industrial Production: Provides a timely signal on US manufacturing and energy-intensive industrial demand. 19 Aug. — FOMC Minutes: Will clarify the discussion behind the July decision and the Committee's balance of inflation and growth risks. 31 Aug. — China NBS Manufacturing PMI: The first official indication of whether July's manufacturing contraction extended into August. Ongoing — Copper trade flows and exchange stocks: Watch whether refined metal continues to accumulate in COMEX warehouses or begins to move back toward Europe and Asia. Ongoing — Chile and Peru mine supply: Operational updates, weather impacts and labour developments remain relevant to near-term concentrate availability. 11. What's new in this edition
Data notes & sourcesPrices and stocks: London Metal Exchange (LME), CME Group (COMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Physical indicators: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Macro indicators: National Bureau of Statistics of China, ICE, U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and LBMA. Structural balance: International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Rounding: exchange prices are reported to the nearest USD/t, inventories to one decimal kt, and percentage changes to one decimal place. US CPI reflects the latest officially published year-on-year rate available at publication. Forecasts are excluded from the data tables. This publication is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. See you next month. Stay informed. Stay ahead.
Resource2Capital
Know the data. Understand the story.
Copper Snapshot — June 20261. Market overview
2. Physical tightness
3. Macro environment
4. InterpretationCopper markets in June 2026 showed a mixed regional picture, with divergence driven by policy-related arbitrage flows. Exchange inventories rose on both sides of the Atlantic: the COMEX build reflected tariff-related distortions and transatlantic arbitrage flows that incentivised material relocation into the US ahead of potential trade-policy changes at the end of June, while LME stocks also increased. In China, physical indicators were broadly stable to slightly supportive, with higher Yangshan premiums pointing to improved import demand and marginally lower SHFE inventories. TC/RCs eased marginally from May but remained deeply negative, underlining persistent tightness in the upstream copper concentrate market and continued constraints in global mine supply. 5. Monthly highlights
6. Copper calendar (July 2026) — conditional
7. Copper assets (monthly focus)Escondida Mine (Chile): base-load global supply anchor
8. 1-minute copper concept: exchange stocksExchange-traded copper stocks are visible inventories of exchange-approved, high-purity copper cathodes held in certified warehouses and available for delivery against futures contracts (warranted stocks). The three major exchanges monitor inventories in different regions:
9. Copper ChallengeIf LME inventories fall by 50%, does that automatically mean the global copper market is in deficit? — Our answer is published on resource2capital.ch. 10. Structural balance (ICSG framework)
See you next month. Stay informed. Stay ahead.
Data rules: 1. LME 3M EOM and LME stocks: close · 2. COMEX HG1 EOM: settlement avg; COMEX stocks: 5d avg end of month · 3. SHFE MC EOM: settlement avg; SHFE stocks: weekly avg of month · 4. Yangshan premium: SMM, indicative range, USD/t · 5. TC/RC: CIF China concentrate, SMM indication
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